An In-Depth Look at the Future Development of AI in China
By Xia Ri
In late 2022, ChatGPT made its appearance, marking the beginning of a global acceleration in AI development. By the end of 2024, over 1,300 large-scale AI models were active globally, with China and the United States holding a significant 80% market share.
The U.S. maintains its lead in large AI model development, leveraging its technological prowess and innovative capacity. Conversely, China has swiftly emerged as a major competitor, equipping itself with a vast market and robust government support, yielding a pool of over 300 domestically developed AI models – second only to the U.S. This raises the question: what does the future hold for AI development in China? A senior analyst at ANBOUND has conducted a thorough analysis to explore this evolving landscape.
Emerging Trends in AI Development
- The Rise of ‘Small AI’: Following ANBOUND’s definitions, while ‘large AI’ refers to general-purpose models, ‘small AI’ encompasses models tailored for specific applications. Although China faces hurdles in large AI development due to high costs and security issues, the country holds advantages in cultivating small AI models, which are expected to proliferate.
- The Challenge of Originality: China’s original large AI models have yet to show significant breakthroughs due to foreign monopolies and limited access to superior data and technology. This challenge is compounded by the discrepancy in access to computing power and the information censorship within China.
- AI’s Integration into Various Sectors: AI applications are set to transform industries like education and finance, focusing initially on training and low-risk areas. Personalization in learning experiences, driven by AI, will become a significant trend.
- Healthcare Risks: In healthcare, the adoption of AI can pose serious risks due to the high stakes involved. Limited quality data and potential privacy violations highlight the challenges in this high-risk sector.
- Evolution of Search Engines: As AI capabilities increase, traditional search apps may evolve into AI-driven assistants, marking a significant shift in the efficiency of information retrieval.
- Decline of ‘Dumb Computers’: With the rise of AI computers, traditional computers may decline as new interactive technologies redefine user experiences.
- Mainstream Influence of Information Analysis: AI will facilitate more profound insights through enhanced data analysis capabilities, while the importance of asking the right questions remains a core human skill.
- Possible Stagnation: After a potential second wave of innovation, China’s AI sector may face prolonged stagnation due to competition and high operating costs.
- Competition in E-Commerce: AI optimization in shopping is expected to heighten competition among e-commerce platforms, improving customer experiences significantly.
- Societal Transformation: AI’s influence on society will grow progressively, affecting fundamental tasks and reshaping industry standards.
Final Analysis Conclusion
Xia Ri concludes that since the emergence of ChatGPT, China’s AI models have shown rapid development. The future will see a rise in small AI models, while addressing the challenges posed by monopolies and a competitive landscape. The technology’s integration into training and low-risk sectors reflects its growing popularity, while healthcare faces major risks. AI will transform traditional search engines and drive e-commerce innovations, fundamentally reshaping society.
Xia Ri is an Industry Researcher at ANBOUND, an independent think tank.
